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格陵兰中部-北部的现代温度是过去一千年中最高的
作者:小柯机器人 发布时间:2023/1/26 15:39:57

近日,德国阿尔弗雷德-魏格纳研究所Hrhold, M及其研究小组的研究得出了格陵兰岛中部-北部的现代气温是过去一千年来最高的结论。这一研究成果于2023年1月18日发表在国际顶尖学术期刊《自然》上。

课题组人员表明,最近重建的十年中变暖,几乎肯定地超过了过去一千年中工业化前的温度变化范围(P<0.001),并且比二十世纪平均高1.5±0.4摄氏度(1个标准误差)。研究发现,这些异常的温度来自于自然变化与自公元1800年以来明显的长期变暖趋势的叠加。不成比例的变暖伴随着格陵兰岛融水径流的增加,这意味着格陵兰岛中部和北部也受到了人为影响,这可能进一步加速整个格陵兰岛的质量损失。

据悉,由于格陵兰冰盖的规模、辐射效应和淡水储量,它在全球气候系统中起着核心作用,同时也是一个潜在的引爆点。气象站显示,沿海地区正在变暖,但由于缺少长期观测,冰盖中部的全球变暖印记尚不清楚。目前基于冰芯的温度,重建在从自然变化中分离出的全球变暖信号,这一过程是模棱两可的,因为它们太过嘈杂,而且不包括最近几十年的数据。通过系统地重新钻取冰芯,研究小组高质量的进行了从公元1000年到2011年格陵兰岛中部和北部的温度重建。

附:英文原文

Title: Modern temperatures in central–north Greenland warmest in past millennium

Author: Hrhold, M., Mnch, T., Weibach, S., Kipfstuhl, S., Freitag, J., Sasgen, I., Lohmann, G., Vinther, B., Laepple, T.

Issue&Volume: 2023-01-18

Abstract: The Greenland Ice Sheet has a central role in the global climate system owing to its size, radiative effects and freshwater storage, and as a potential tipping point. Weather stations show that the coastal regions are warming, but the imprint of global warming in the central part of the ice sheet is unclear, owing to missing long-term observations. Current ice-core-based temperature reconstructionsare ambiguous with respect to isolating global warming signatures from natural variability, because they are too noisy and do not include the most recent decades. By systematically redrilling ice cores, we created a high-quality reconstruction of central and north Greenland temperatures from AD 1000 until 2011. Here we show that the warming in the recent reconstructed decade exceeds the range of the pre-industrial temperature variability in the past millennium with virtual certainty (P<0.001) and is on average 1.5±0.4degrees Celsius (1standard error) warmer than the twentieth century. Our findings suggest that these exceptional temperatures arise from the superposition of natural variability with a long-term warming trend, apparent since AD 1800. The disproportionate warming is accompanied by enhanced Greenland meltwater run-off, implying that anthropogenic influence has also arrived in central and north Greenland, which might further accelerate the overall Greenland mass loss.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05517-z

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05517-z

期刊信息

Nature:《自然》,创刊于1869年。隶属于施普林格·自然出版集团,最新IF:69.504
官方网址:http://www.nature.com/
投稿链接:http://www.nature.com/authors/submit_manuscript.html

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