2023年1月18日，以色列雅各布.布劳斯坦科学合作中心Murali, Gopal的团队在《自然》杂志发表论文，宣布他们的最新研究探明了未来的极端温度威胁着陆地脊椎动物。

课题组研究人员提供了陆地脊椎动物暴露于未来极端热事件的全球评估。该研究团队使用1950-2099年的每日最高温度数据来量化陆地脊椎动物未来暴露于高频、持续时间和强度的极端高温事件。在高温室气体排放情景下(共享社会经济途径5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5);全球升温4.4摄氏度），到2099年，所有陆地脊椎动物的41.0%(包括31.1%的哺乳动物、25.8%的鸟类、55.5%的两栖动物和51.0%的爬行动物)，至少一半将暴露在超过其历史水平的极端高温事件中。中-高程度以下(SSP3-7.0;全球升温3.6 °C)和中等程度(SSP2-4.5;全球升温2.7℃)的排放情景下，估计分别影响所有脊椎动物的28.8%和15.1%。

重要的是，低排放的未来(SSP1-2.6, 全球升温1.8°C)将大大减少脊椎动物(6.1%的物种)的总体暴露，并可以完全防止许多物种组合的暴露。中纬度组合(沙漠、灌木丛和草地生物群落)，而不是热带，将面临未来极端热事件的最严重的影响。到2099年，SSP5-8.5以下，平均有3773种陆生脊椎动物(11.2%)将面临半年以上的极端高温事件。总的来说，未来的极端热事件将迫使许多物种和群体持续遭受严重的热应力。迫切需要减少深层温室气体排放，以限制物种暴露于极端的高温环境中。

据了解，极端高温事件的频率、持续时间和强度正在增加，预计到本世纪末将进一步增加。尽管极端温度对生物系统造成了相当大的后果，但研究小组不知道世界范围内哪些物种和地点最容易受到影响。

附：英文原文

Title: Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates

Author: Murali, Gopal, Iwamura, Takuya, Meiri, Shai, Roll, Uri

Issue&Volume: 2023-01-18

Abstract: The frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events are increasing and are projected to further increase by the end of the century. Despite the considerable consequences of temperature extremes on biological systems, we do not know which species and locations are most exposed worldwide. Here we provide a global assessment of land vertebrates’ exposures to future extreme thermal events. We use daily maximum temperature data from 1950 to 2099 to quantify future exposure to high frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events to land vertebrates. Under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5); 4.4°C warmer world), 41.0% of all land vertebrates (31.1% mammals, 25.8% birds, 55.5% amphibians and 51.0% reptiles) will be exposed to extreme thermal events beyond their historical levels in at least half their distribution by 2099. Under intermediate-high (SSP3–7.0; 3.6°C warmer world) and intermediate (SSP2–4.5; 2.7°C warmer world) emission scenarios, estimates for all vertebrates are 28.8% and 15.1%, respectively. Importantly, a low-emission future (SSP1–2.6, 1.8°C warmer world) will greatly reduce the overall exposure of vertebrates (6.1% of species) and can fully prevent exposure in many species assemblages. Mid-latitude assemblages (desert, shrubland, and grassland biomes), rather than tropics, will face the most severe exposure to future extreme thermal events. By 2099, under SSP5–8.5, on average 3,773 species of land vertebrates (11.2%) will face extreme thermal events for more than half a year period. Overall, future extreme thermal events will force many species and assemblages into constant severe thermal stress. Deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts are urgently needed to limit species’ exposure to thermal extremes.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05606-z

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05606-z