复旦大学周文团队经过报道了中国东部干湿热浪的年代际变化的空间模式和风险评估。2024年3月19日出版的《大气科学进展》发表了这项成果。

研究人员调查了近几十年来中国东部地区(EC)干湿热浪的变化。空间趋势分析显示，内陆中纬度地区和长江流域明显变暖，沿海地区湿度增加。EOF结果表明，中国北方的干热浪加剧，长江流域的干热浪更为频繁。另一方面，北纬25°以北地区经历了更强烈的热浪，与区域湿度增加相对应。

研究人员根据不同强、频繁的干或湿热浪的情况，对结果进行了综合分析。强烈的干热浪受中国北部反气旋环流的影响，伴随着北太平洋西部(WNP)中纬度沿海地区海温异常变暖。频繁的干热浪与WNP上空的强下沉和副热带高压增强有关。

强而频繁的湿性热浪，显示为对流层下部高纬度地区鄂霍次克高压的增强，对流层上部为负的全球遥相关波列型。在两种湿热浪和频繁的干热浪年份中观察到衰减的厄尔尼诺海温型。风险分析表明，厄尔尼诺事件增加了在风险最大的地区发生这些热浪的可能性。研究结果强调，随着全球变暖的持续，适应和实施针对极端热浪的缓解战略变得至关重要，特别是对于上述遭受严重热应激的地区。

据悉，在全球变暖的背景下，了解不同类型热浪的长期变化对于中国应对不断升级的热应力至关重要。

附：英文原文

Title: Decadal Changes in Dry and Wet Heatwaves in Eastern China: Spatial Patterns and Risk Assessment

Author: Yue ZHANG, Wen Zhou, Ruhua Zhang

Issue&Volume: 2024-03-19

Abstract: Under global warming, understanding the long-term variation in different types of heatwaves is vital for China's preparedness against escalating heat stress. This study investigates dry and wet heatwave shifts in eastern China (EC) over recent decades. Spatial trend analysis displays pronounced warming in inland mid-latitudes and the Yangtze River Valley, with increased humidity in coastal regions. EOF results indicate intensifying dry heatwaves in northern China, while the Yangtze River Valley sees more frequent dry heatwaves. On the other hand, Indochina and regions north of 25°N also experience intensified wet heatwaves, corresponding to regional humidity increases. Composite analysis is conducted based on different situations: strong, frequent dry or wet heatwaves. Strong dry heatwaves are influenced by anticyclonic circulations over northern China, accompanied by warming SST anomalies around the coastal mid-latitudes of the western North Pacific (WNP). Frequent dry heatwaves are related to strong subsidence along with a strengthened subtropical high over the WNP. Strong and frequent wet heatwaves show an intensified Okhotsk High at higher latitudes in the lower troposphere, and a negative circumglobal teleconnection wave train pattern in the upper troposphere. Decaying El Nio SST patterns are observed in two kinds of wet heatwave and frequent dry heatwave years. Risk analysis indicates that El Nio events heighten the likelihood of these heatwaves in regions most at risk. As global warming continues, adapting and implementing mitigation strategies toward extreme heatwaves becomes crucial, especially for the aforementioned regions under significant heat stress.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-024-3261-4

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-024-3261-4viewType=HTML